Abstract: The characteristics of capital gains tendencies under population aging are related to investors' judgment on China's future investment environment, the effects of monetary policy regulation, and the success of the pension system reform. Will China's capital gains enter into a downward spiral during the critical period for the achievement of the bicentennial goals ? To answer this question, it is necessary to establish a dynamic optimization framework to examine the impact of aging on capital returns over the years. Based on realistic and feasible parameters, a numerical simulation study has found that if the current birth policy remains unchanged , China's capital gains will enter into a downward spiral before 2050 . This means that there is a risk of cap-ital outflow, and the capital engine of the Chinese economy may lose its steam; capital gains may fall , and the role of monetary policy in regulating the macroeconomic condition could be weakened ; an accumulation - based pension system reform will not serve all purposes , and personal pensions face the risk of failing to appreciate or maintain their value. A further simulated study has found that the adjustment of birth policy would not only improve future capital gains but also change the tendency characteristics of capital gains to fall after 2035. At present, it is necessary to further relax birth control, introduce a birth support policy, and improve the current birth level;birth policy is not only an important policy but also and policy and policy and policy and policy and policy en a science and technology policy.
Keywords：baby boom , population aging , capital gains , birth policy
The Chinese version appeared in Financial Economics Research, 2020(03).